A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
