Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
